Goude Group · Weekly Intelligence

The Briefing.

This week's news: Banks cut spreads harder for the tier above you, a deduction from 2022 comes back in full on next month's return, small group health filed a 14 percent median increase, the overtime box on your 2026 payroll has to be mapped before year end, and lending rules tighten on October 1.

Read the whole thing in three minutes, or go deeper where it touches your business. We talk about the market here, not about ourselves.

No. 007
August 24, 2026

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01 / The SpreadBrief · 45 sec

Banks cut their loan spreads almost twice as hard for the company one size up from you last quarter. Your renewal letter will not mention it.

What moved

In the July senior loan officer survey, a net 25.0 percent of banks reported narrowing spreads on business loans to firms above $50 million in sales. For firms below $50 million the figure was 14.5 percent. Standards themselves barely moved. Three months earlier both groups were tightening. This is the first quarter of broad price easing after two quarters going the other way.

What it changes

Nothing in that came from the Fed. Prime has sat at 6.75 percent since December and the target range has not moved. The easing is bank competition, and it is being handed out unevenly by size. On $8 million of floating debt, a line plus a term loan, fifty basis points is $40,000 a year. On a $3 million revolver alone it is $15,000. The window is your renewal date.

What not to do

Do not read the survey as a forecast, because it is a record of what banks already did last quarter. Do not open the conversation by asking for a better rate, which invites a no. Do not assume your banker will raise it, because on the conventional side the spread is their margin and there is no version where volunteering it helps them.

The tape

Apr 2026The prior quarterly survey shows banks tightening: standards up a net 8.1 percent for larger firms and 6.6 percent for smaller, with covenants tightening on both.
Jul 2 2026Responses are due for the July survey, drawn from 56 domestic banks and 18 US branches of foreign banks. The turn shows up in the pricing lines rather than the standards lines.
Jul 2026Spreads narrow on net for both groups, but 25.0 percent for firms above $50 million against 14.5 percent below. Costs of credit lines fall 12.7 against 7.3. Covenants ease 7.1 against 5.5.
Aug 14 2026Commercial and industrial balances stand at $2.92 trillion and contract 1.1 percent annualised in July, the first decline all year, after 14.2 percent growth the prior quarter.
Your renewalThe only date that matters. The survey describes a market that has already moved; the question is whether your paper moves with it.

What the gap between two numbers is actually measuring

A company doing $60 million has a treasurer who reads that survey and knows the market cleared 25 percent net easing on spreads. A company doing $25 million has a controller who receives a renewal letter and signs it. The 10.5 point gap between those two figures is not a quirk of the data. It is the price of not asking, and it is charged again at every renewal, to the same borrower, for as long as nobody opens the file. Banks are not doing anything improper here. They are quoting to the level of scrutiny they expect from the borrower in front of them.

There is a second fact worth carrying into the room. Commercial and industrial balances contracted in July for the first time all year, down 1.1 percent annualised, after growing at double digits through the spring. Banks need earning assets. Meanwhile the same week, two mid-market revolvers repriced publicly at SOFR plus 137.5 to 212.5 and SOFR plus 112.5 to 212.5, with unused fees in the teens and covenants at 3.0 times leverage and 1.25 times fixed charge coverage. Those are comparables. Walking into a renewal with a published survey and two named deals is a different conversation from walking in with a request.

The play

  1. Have the controller pull the credit agreement and the last two renewal letters, and write down the current spread over the index, the unused line fee and every covenant level.
  2. Price the gap with the tool on the right so the conversation starts from a number rather than a feeling.
  3. Take three things to the banker before the renewal date: the survey split by firm size, one named comparable repricing, and your own coverage and leverage trend.
  4. Ask for the covenant as well as the rate. Covenants eased on net last quarter too, and a headroom change is worth more than basis points in a soft year.
02 / The Catch-UpBrief · 45 sec

There is a deduction buried in your 2022 to 2024 returns that comes back in full on the return you file next month, and the version where nobody claims it is the one that takes no work from anybody.

What moved

Tax law forced businesses to capitalise and amortise domestic research and development costs over five years starting in 2022. That was repealed. Revenue Procedure 2025-28 lets any taxpayer, at any revenue size, recover the entire remaining unamortised 2022 to 2024 balance on the 2025 return, either all at once or spread across 2025 and 2026. The separate route for amending old years closed on July 6.

What it changes

The definition is wider than owners think. It is not lab coats. It is software development, engineering, prototyping, and wages for product and process development. A $25 million manufacturer with $1.2 million a year of qualifying spend carries roughly $2.0 to $2.4 million unamortised into 2025, which is $420,000 to $500,000 of federal cash tax at 21 percent before state. The election is a statement attached to the return. No Form 3115.

What not to do

Do not assume this does not apply because you do not have a research department, since the costs are ordinary engineering and software wages. Do not leave it to be raised at filing time, because by then the return is going out the door. Do not take the full acceleration without asking what it does to your loss carryforward and your interest deduction limit first.

The tape

2022Capitalisation begins. Domestic research and experimental costs must be spread over five years rather than deducted, which quietly builds an unamortised balance on the books of anyone doing engineering or software work.
Aug 28 2025Revenue Procedure 2025-28 is released, setting the procedures for recovering the balance under the repeal.
Jul 6 2026The separate small-business route closes. Businesses averaging under $31 million in gross receipts could have amended 2022, 2023 and 2024 outright. That door is shut.
Sep 15 2026Extended partnership and S corporation returns are due. The election is made by attaching a statement, so it is a filing-time decision with no later fix.
Oct 15 2026Extended C corporation returns are due. After that the year is closed and the remaining balance keeps amortising on the old schedule.

Why the default wins unless the owner speaks

Continuing the existing amortisation schedule requires no statement, no analysis, no client conversation and no exposure for the person preparing your return. Accelerating requires them to compute the balance, model what a large deduction does to your loss position and your interest limitation, coordinate it with the research credit and the related election, and attach a statement, all in the fortnight before an extended return is filed. At $10 million to $50 million your return is prepared by a good regional firm treating this as a compliance line. The silent option is free for everyone except you, and once the return is filed the choice is made.

So make it a question rather than a hope. Three sentences to your CPA this week. What is our unamortised domestic balance carried into 2025. Are we taking it fully in 2025, splitting it across 2025 and 2026, or defaulting to continued amortisation, and why. Does full acceleration create a loss we can only use against 80 percent of future income, or collide with the interest deduction limit. There is a real answer where continuing to amortise is correct, usually when the deduction would strand. But it should be an answer, not an omission.

The play

  1. Send the three questions to your CPA this week, in writing, so the answer arrives before the return is being assembled rather than during.
  2. Ask specifically for the unamortised domestic balance as a number. If nobody can produce it quickly, that is the finding.
  3. Use the tool on the right to size the cash at stake before the call, so you know whether this is worth pushing on.
  4. Confirm the treatment coordinates with your research credit election, since the two interact and getting one right in isolation can cost you the other.
03 / The PoolBrief · 45 sec

Your broker is paid a percentage of a premium that just went up fourteen percent. The healthy groups already left the risk pool you are still buying in.

What moved

Small group insurers have filed a 14 percent median rate increase for 2027, up from 11 percent for 2026, across 295 insurers in all fifty states. A quarter filed at 10 percent or below and a quarter at 18 percent or above. The medical trend underneath is 10.8 percent, so roughly three points of the increase is not care cost at all. It is the pool getting worse.

What it changes

On a hundred-life group carrying around $1.6 million of annual premium, the difference between accepting 14 percent and landing at 8 percent is about $96,000. Level funded arrangements went from 2 percent of small group enrolment in 2021 to over 11 percent in 2025, and fully insured small group enrolment fell 41 percent between 2013 and 2024. The healthy groups left. You are paying for the ones who could not.

What not to do

Do not treat the renewal as arithmetic to be approved, because it is the largest controllable line you touch all year. Do not ask your broker whether self funding makes sense without knowing they are paid on premium. Do not cross fifty full-time equivalents without checking what it does, since in most states it moves you out of community rating and into the employer mandate in the same month.

The tape

2021 to 2025Level funded arrangements climb from 2 percent of small group enrolment to over 11 percent, pulling the better risks out of the community rated pool.
Jul 2026Individual market insurers file a 15 percent median increase for 2027 across 276 insurers, which worsens the individual coverage arrangement alternative at the same time.
Aug 6 2026Small group filings publish: 14 percent median across 295 insurers, up from 11 percent, with 59 percent of insurers filing between 10 and 20 percent.
Autumn 2026Renewals land. Two thirds of large employers are already raising employee contributions for 2027 and 48 percent are raising deductibles or copays.
Jan 1 2027New rates take effect. The affordability threshold rises to 10.22 percent, the first time above ten, which gives back a little headroom on the employee contribution.

The conflict is structural, not personal

A 14 percent renewal pays a percentage-of-premium broker 14 percent more. That is not an accusation, it is an arithmetic fact about how the person advising you is compensated, and it means the file that would shrink your premium is the one file they have no reason to open. Below fifty employees this barely matters, because the rate is community rated and there is nothing to negotiate. Above fifty it matters enormously, because you have entered an underwriting conversation you have never had to have, against a counterparty who does this every day, advised by someone paid on the number going up.

So change what you ask for. Not a better rate, which is a request. Ask for three quotes side by side: fully insured, level funded, and self funded with stop loss, each with the broker's compensation disclosed in dollars rather than percent. Ask what your own claims experience actually looks like, because at a hundred lives you have credible data and the pool average is no longer your best estimate. And if you are near fifty full-time equivalents, get the count nailed down before the renewal rather than after, because crossing it changes which market you buy in and switches on employer mandate penalties of $3,780 and $5,670 in the same stroke.

The play

  1. Ask for three quotes side by side, fully insured, level funded and self funded with stop loss, with broker compensation shown in dollars on each.
  2. Get your own claims experience in front of you. At a hundred lives the data is credible and the pool average stops being your best estimate.
  3. Count your full-time equivalents properly before the renewal if you are anywhere near fifty, because crossing it changes the market and switches on the mandate.
  4. Use the tool on the right to price the gap between the renewal as offered and where you think it should land, so the number frames the meeting.
04 / Box 12Brief · 45 sec

Your payroll system built the box. Nobody told it which of your overtime is the kind that counts, and the bill for guessing is $680 an employee.

What moved

An August fact sheet confirmed the 2025 transition relief on overtime reporting does not extend. For tax year 2026, employers must report the overtime premium separately in Box 12 using code TT, and an employee may not claim the deduction on any amount the employer fails to report there. Pay stubs do not substitute. The substitute W-2 form is not a workaround.

What it changes

Only the federal premium qualifies, the extra half above the regular rate. State daily overtime, seventh day rules, double time, contractual overtime and shift differentials do not. Get the mapping wrong and the penalty is charged twice, once for the agency copy and once for the employee copy, at $340 each. At 150 employees that is $102,000. Above $5 million of receipts you do not get the small business cap.

What not to do

Do not assume your payroll provider handled it, because they built the field and cannot know which of your earning codes are federally required premium. Do not leave non-discretionary bonuses out of the regular rate, which under-reports the box and creates a separate wage claim. Do not wait until February, when the same error costs five times more to fix.

The tape

Jan 23 2026The first guidance on the new overtime deduction is published, with transition relief for the 2025 tax year that many employers read as ongoing.
Aug 2026An updated fact sheet supersedes it and states plainly that no relief is available for tax years after 2025, and that employees may not claim more than what appears in the box.
Now to Dec 31The configuration window. Calendar year 2026 is already eight months gone, so the mapping has to be right and any earlier months reconciled before the final payroll run.
Feb 1 20272026 forms are due to be filed and furnished. Errors found here cost $60 a return if fixed inside thirty days.
After Aug 1 2027The same error costs $340 a return, charged twice. The window between those two numbers is the whole story.

Nobody in the building owns this

At thirty to two hundred and fifty people the payroll runs on a mid-market provider who ships the code TT field and announces it in a release note. What they cannot know is which of your earning codes represent federally required premium and which are state law, contractual or discretionary. That mapping is a judgment about your own pay practices, and in most companies this size nobody owns it. The controller assumes payroll handled it. The person handling people assumes the controller checked. The owner never sees it. The failure surfaces in February 2027 when employees who were told their overtime would not be taxed find a blank or wrong box and cannot claim it.

The correction economics are the reason to look now rather than then. Fixed within thirty days it is $60 a return. Corrected by the following August it is $130. After that it is $340, doubled because the same wrong form is penalised on both copies. That is a 5.7 times swing decided entirely by whether somebody opens the payroll configuration in September instead of February. And there is a version where it cannot be fixed at all: if your timekeeping kept only gross overtime dollars rather than hours over forty and the regular rate inputs, the year cannot be cleanly rebuilt. Check that first, because it determines whether this is a configuration job or a bigger one.

The play

  1. Ask payroll one question in writing: which of our earning codes are mapped to code TT, and who made that decision. If the answer is the provider's default, that is the finding.
  2. Confirm non-discretionary bonuses, attendance, production, longevity and safety, are folded into the regular rate before the premium is computed, including when paid on a separate cheque.
  3. Check what your timekeeping retained for January through August: hours over forty and regular rate inputs, or only gross overtime dollars. That determines whether the year can be rebuilt.
  4. Price the exposure with the tool on the right, then decide whether this is a September task or a February problem.
05 / The Loan NumberBrief · 45 sec

On October 1 the same deal supports about eight percent less debt. The clock runs on a number your lender has not told you whether you will get.

What moved

New lending rules were issued on August 14 and take effect for any 7(a) loan that receives its agency loan number on or after October 1. The coverage floor on acquisitions and partner buyouts rises from 1.15 times to 1.25 times. Projections no longer count toward the test, which must be proved on historical results. Any purchase price at or above $3 million now requires a lender-commissioned quality of earnings report.

What it changes

At $1.2 million of adjusted cash flow, 1.15 times supports about $1,043,000 of annual debt service and 1.25 times supports $960,000. That is 8 percent less loan, roughly $400,000 on a $5 million deal, which becomes equity the buyer has to find. It runs the other way too: if you are the seller, every buyer closing after October 1 supports less debt, and that lands on your price.

What not to do

Do not assume signing an application locks the old rules, because the cliff is keyed to the date the agency issues the loan number, not the date you applied. Do not leave the question implied, since a file sitting in a queue can drift across the date with nobody telling you. Do not read this as only affecting buyers, because at this size the most common use is a partner buyout.

The tape

Jun 1 2025The prior rules take effect, setting the general coverage standard at 1.15 times for most business purchases with no quality of earnings requirement.
Aug 14 2026The revised rules are issued. Coverage on acquisitions and buyouts rises to 1.25 times, projections stop counting, and a quality of earnings report becomes mandatory at $3 million and above.
Sep 30 2026The last day a file can receive an agency loan number under the old rules. Applications issued a number by this date stay under the prior standard.
Oct 1 2026The new test applies. Seller notes must now stay current for 36 months before refinancing rather than 24, and the seller consulting window doubles to 24 months.

The date is not the one you think it is

Everything written about this change is aimed at search funds and lenders, so it reads like it belongs to somebody buying a small trades business. The mechanism that actually bites at $10 million to $50 million is the partner buyout, which is the most common use of this financing at your size and is explicitly one of the categories moving to the higher historical coverage test. The second trap is the trigger. It is not the application date, not the term sheet, not the credit approval. It is the date the agency issues a loan number, which sits with your lender's processing queue and is invisible to you unless you ask.

Your lender has no obligation to tell you your file is at risk of slipping, and with a full pipeline in the last five weeks of the fiscal year, no particular incentive either. That is not a scandal. It is why the question has to come from you, in writing, this week, in one sentence: will my file have an agency loan number before September 30. If the answer is anything other than yes, you are structuring against the new test and should reprice now rather than in October. A quality of earnings report at this deal size runs roughly $6,000 to $25,000 and takes weeks, so on a $3 million or larger purchase it is also a scheduling problem, not just a cost.

The play

  1. Send your lender one sentence in writing today: will my file have an agency loan number before September 30. Anything short of yes means plan for the new test.
  2. Recompute the deal at 1.25 times on historical results with no projections. The tool on the right does it in two numbers.
  3. If the purchase price is at or above $3 million, start the quality of earnings work now regardless, because it runs weeks and the lender commissions it, not you.
  4. If you are the seller rather than the buyer, model what a buyer supports after October 1, because eight percent less debt lands on your price rather than theirs.
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